Back in December 2024, we made some bold predictions about what would define the year ahead. Now, just a few months in, it’s time for a reality check. Here’s what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we completely missed. So let’s dig in to what 2025 ecommerce predictions didn’t come true!
Chapter 01The TikTok That Wasn’t
Remember the TikTok panic? It feels like ancient history now, but just months ago we were watching the shutdown deadline approach with no resolution in sight. Then TikTok went dark for a brief, dramatic moment. We thought this was it—the beginning of the end.
Spoiler alert: it wasn’t.
What we’ve gotten instead is a year of extended deadlines and political theater. TikTok looks and operates pretty much the same as it always has. Scott Galloway called this one early on, and he was right. We’re still having the same conversations about potential ownership changes, deadlines keep getting pushed, and honestly? I think this is how 2025 ends too. Nothing much to see here—business as usual.
Chapter 02The AI Overlord That Turned Out to Be… Pretty Reasonable
The other big conversation at the start of the year was AI and its impact on SEO. The panic was real: Was SEO dead? Was there some secret algorithm score that only the chosen few understood? Were we all now subjects of an AI overlord making Caligula-esque decisions about our content’s visibility?
The answer turned out to be way less dramatic.
Rand Fishkin was among the first to cut through the noise: it’s all about how you’re presented across the internet. Consistent messaging gets you seen. Yes, there are optimization tweaks, but it’s not the impossible maze we feared it might be.
What we weren’t talking about enough? The explosion of AI-generated content itself. From the em dash saga (which I believe has reclaimed its crown) to the Coca-Cola Christmas ad that’s somehow winning over critics—AI content went from curiosity to ubiquity faster than we predicted.
Chapter 03Our Biggest Miss: Tariffs and the De Minimis Disruption
Here’s where we really dropped the ball: not one of us was seriously discussing what turned out to have the biggest impact on retail and ecommerce this year—tariffs and the de minimis exemption.
We were at ShopTalk in Vegas right before the tariffs were announced. The mood was upbeat, bullish on the year ahead. Then the announcement hit, and the energy shifted overnight.
The initial uncertainty quickly gave way to creative problem-solving around supply chains, messaging, and pricing strategies. But the second shift—the changes to de minimis rules—has been equally significant. The sudden drop in advertising from Temu altered the competitive landscape. They’re certainly not as dominant as they once were.
What’s been most surprising, though, is the limited consumer backlash. I expected more pushback to the overnight disappearance of cheap, plentiful goods from overseas sellers. But it hasn’t materialized. The “Dollar and a Quarter Store” doesn’t seem to bother people enough—it’s still cheap enough to get things.
Inflation remains the unknown variable that could tap the brakes on consumer spending, so it’ll be fascinating to see how brands navigate the rest of the year.
Chapter 04The Takeaway
So our 2025 ecommerce predictions, well they weren’t all right but, sometimes the biggest stories aren’t the ones we’re all watching. The TikTok drama turned out to be noise. The AI apocalypse for SEO was overblown. But the quiet economic shifts? Those are reshaping how we do business in ways we’re still figuring out.
That’s the thing about predictions—they keep us humble.
