TikTok Payments & 4 Ecommerce 2024 Predictions You Need to Know

Paul Drexler ecommerce shopifreaks

In this episode of the Live Ecommerce Podcast, Nicolas interviews Paul Drexler, author of the popular Shopifreaks newsletter. They discuss predictions for ecommerce in 2024. Paul shares his insights from over 20 years of experience in web development, ecommerce, and travel.

Marketplaces & the Rise of Niche Players

The first 2024 ecommerce prediction examined is about Amazon dominance. Paul argues that no new major marketplace will seriously challenge the dominance of Amazon, Walmart, and eBay in the U.S. Paul disagrees, arguing the golden era of those giants is ending. Smaller, niche players like Chinese marketplaces (Shein, Temu, Alibaba), resale platforms for DTC brands, and others will increasingly chip away at their market share through a “death by a thousand cuts.”

TikTok Shop & TikTok Pay

In another compelling 2024 ecommerce prediction, Paul argues that TikTok will launch its own digital wallet. He goes on to envision a payment system called TikTok Pay. Paul believes this makes sense given TikTok’s rapid moves into ecommerce. It would also benefit their creator monetization programs, and its highly sticky 150 million daily U.S. users. With a massive investment war chest, TikTok can easily subsidize free credits or shipping to drive adoption of TikTok Pay.

Livestream Video & Display Ads

An intriguing suggestion is that display ads could get connected to livestream shopping videos. Mostly for creators and media companies, dding in stream ads could introduce new monetization dynamics. Brands ads could also have a new twist. When a brand goes live, their regular product display ads could be replaced with a “Watch Live” ad promoting their livestream. This would be a boost for video commerce and creator-led shopping channels.

Ecommerce Prediction 2024 #5: The AI Battle: Google vs Apple

On the AI front, Paul examines two predictions – one that Google’s forthcoming Gemini AI tailored to each user’s data will leapfrog OpenAI. The other is that Apple will inevitably enter into consumer AI and it could overshadow both Google and others. While Google may lead initially by pushing AI hard, the quality and privacy advantages of Apple’s AI could allow it to quickly catch up.

Google Doubling Down on Ecommerce

The final of its 2024 ecommerce predictions is related to Google. Paul argues that Google will transform search results into more commerce-centric experiences. With robust product grids and category pages, they can diminish the value proposition of retailer websites. Paul expresses skepticism, suggesting publishers may rebel against having their content repurposed for AI if it doesn’t drive valuable traffic.

The wide-ranging discussion covers the rapidly shifting landscape of marketplaces, the TikTok commerce juggernaut, video and livestream commerce, the AI wars between tech giants, and the tension between AI content delivery versus publisher monetization. It’s a must-listen for ecommerce professionals preparing for the upheaval of 2024.

Subscribe to Shopifreaks newsletter at shopifreaks.com for his curated weekly insights into the latest ecommerce news and trends.

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